Tropical Storm Matthew forms in Windward IslandsComments Off on Tropical Storm Matthew forms in Windward Islands
(12:20 p.m. update) The strong tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa a week ago has developed enough of a surface circulation to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew.
The tropical storm is currently moving through the Windward Islands. It remains without a well developed core, so it should not get much stronger Wednesday.
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After that, Matthew will be moving into an area of warm water and low shear. All computer models show Matthew strengthening into a hurricane over the Caribbean.
Computer models are in good agreement through 72 hours. After that, Matthew will be approaching a strong upper trough to the west. This will begin to turn it more northward.
However, there is great disagreement on when it turns and how sharp the turn will be. A sooner turn will take it further out over the Bahamas and east of Florida. If it turns later, it could have a better chance of impacting Florida, especially the east side of the state.
The two camps in the computer forecast can be seen below in the spaghetti plot. This is way down the road into next week so we have plenty of time to watch it.
Meanwhile, there are significant threats for the Caribbean. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Guadeloupe and Martinique, St. Lucia, Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Down the road, there could be a significant tropical weather threat for Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Cuba late into the weekend and early next week.
Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49
Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.