TD 9: Tropical Storm warnings for Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties

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(Last updated: 9:20 a.m.)

Tropical Depression Nine has not become any more organized overnight. It is still forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm today.

The storm is located about 425 miles southwest of Tampa.

  • Hurricane watch: Coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Pasco
  • Tropical storm warning Citrus, Hernando, Pasco
  • TD 9 expected to become tropical storm today

Winds will increase tonight into Thursday with the highest winds and highest water levels in the Gulf Thursday through Thursday night.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Aripeka northward to about Apalachicola. It includes Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  It is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on Thursday.

There is also a Tropical Storm Warning for Pasco, Hernando and Citrus Counties. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Wind: Today we expect breezy winds from the south at about 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts in rain squalls.  On Thursday, expect winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts 40 to 60 mph possible during the heavy rain squalls.

Storm Surge: If the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, the water could reach about 2 to 4 feet in Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties and about 1 to 2 feet south of there, including Tampa Bay.

Rainfall: A Flood Watch is in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties from 2 p.m. today through 8 p.m. Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next few days. Rain will be heavy with rain totals possibly higher than 8 inches in parts of our area.  There will also be river flood warnings due to water levels rising after days of heavy rain.

Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes across the central and northern Florida peninsula through Thursday night.

As you can see in the graphic below, the track has not changed much this morning with the system now moving slowly north. It will move northeast today then accelerate in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and across North Florida Thursday night.  

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point since heavy rain, the threat of tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge flooding is forecast well to the east and south of the center.

  • HOW CLOSE IS THE STORM?
    • Orlando: 509 miles SW
    • Daytona Beach: 552 miles SW
    • Cape Canaveral: 543 miles WSW
    • Melbourne: 553 miles WSW
    • Tampa: 432 miles SW
    • Tallahassee: 486 miles SSW
    • Jacksonville: 574 miles SW

This will all be gone for the upcoming holiday weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
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    Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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    Bay News 9 – news

    August 31, 2016 |

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