TROPICS: Low pressure near Cuba

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(Note: Last updated 9:07 a.m. ET)

A weak area of low pressure is located between the north coast of central Cuba and the Florida Keys this morning. Some showers are already moving into the Keys and South Florida this morning and rain is expected to increase there through tonight. So far, upper-level winds have not been favorable for development. Today the system is expected to move westward through the Straits of Florida then into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.  That’s where conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development.

This morning, the computer models continue to show different solutions to the track and intensity of the tropical low. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon and we hope to get a little clearer picture later today.

Regardless of intensity, gusty winds and heavy rainfall will spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys later today. Tampa Bay and central Florida will have scattered showers and thunderstorms today. The deep tropical moisture associated with this system is forecast to spread across the central Florida peninsula during the next several days and some of the rain will be heavy through midweek.

Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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Meanwhile, Hurricane Gaston continues to strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained wind are 90 mph and it is forecast to get stronger. It’s moving NW at 6 mph and is no threat to land.

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August 28, 2016 |

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