TROPICS: More rain squalls, localized flooding as Hermine nears

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(Last update: 8:12 a.m.)

Tropical Storm Hermine is now located about 235 miles WSW of Tampa. Hurricane hunters found that the winds are 65 mph and the strong winds are to the east of the circulation.

The strongest winds are still east of the center. It is expected to strengthen today before landfall late today.

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  • Our reporters will be live throughout the day to bring you the latest on the impacts being felt near you 

No change has been made to the expected track. Hermine is located at the base of a trough and this flow pattern should steer it faster north-northeast.

  • Hurricane warning: Suwannee River to Mexico Beach
  • Hurricane watch: Citrus, Hernando, Pasco
  • Tropical storm warning Citrus, Hernando, Pasco
  • Gov. Rick Scott declares State of Emergency in 51 Florida counties

We have breezy south winds across Tampa Bay and central Florida this morning. We expect increasing winds out of the southwest by tonight to tropical storm force with the highest winds at the coast.

This brings the highest risk of storm surge of about 2-5 feet to our coastal areas, especially Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties tonight and early Friday. There could also be coastal flooding in Tampa Bay of about 1-3 feet.

This all depends on the strength of the storm later today and we will adjust the forecast as needed. The updated high tide times are below.

More rain squalls and localized flooding expected today and high rain chances will continue through Friday. The Flood Watch remains in effect for most of our area until Friday evening.

There is also a slight risk of tornadoes across the Florida peninsula later today through tonight.


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7:01 a.m.:

Hillsborough County has activated its Emergency Operations Center in response to Tropical Storm Hermine. This allows County and partner agencies to better coordinate resources and operations.

5 a.m.:

We have breezy south winds across Tampa Bay and central Florida this morning. We expect increasing winds out of the southwest by tonight to tropical storm force with the highest winds at the coast.

This brings the highest risk of storm surge of about 2-5 feet to our coastal areas, especially Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties tonight and early Friday. There could also be coastal flooding in Tampa Bay of about 1-3 feet.

2 a.m.:
Hermine is expected to make landfall sometime Thursday in the Big Bend area of Florida as a weak category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the coast from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach, with Hurricane Watches in effect for coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando and coastal Pasco counties.

 

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    Here’s a look at the anticipated high tide amounts for Thursday into Friday.

Hazards affecting land

Wind: On Thursday, expect winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts 40 to 60 mph possible during the heavy rain squalls.

Storm Surge: If the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, the water could reach about 2 to 5 feet in Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties and about 1 to 3 feet south of there, including Tampa Bay.

Rainfall: Flood Watch in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties through 8 p.m. Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday. There will also be river flood warnings due to water levels rising after days of heavy rain.

Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes across the central and northern Florida peninsula through Thursday night.

As you can see in the graphic below, the track has not changed much with the system now moving slowly north. It moved northeast Wednesday and will  accelerate in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and across North Florida Thursday night. 

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point since heavy rain, the threat of tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge flooding is forecast well to the east and south of the center.

  • HOW CLOSE IS THE STORM?
    • Orlando: 313 miles WSW
    • Daytona Beach: 350 miles WSW
    • Cape Canaveral: 348 miles WSW
    • Melbourne: 350 miles WSW
    • Tampa: 238 miles WSW
    • Tallahassee: 265 miles SSW
    • Jacksonville: 358 miles SW

What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
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Where can I get sandbags?


Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.

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September 1, 2016 |

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